A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
