Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
